The risk-free rate
For 200 years finance has measured every investment against government debt. Today that yardstick is the 3-month Treasury bill.
FRED · 3-month Treasury bill · 1934–2026
The yardstick is shrinking
A 1913 dollar keeps three cents of what it once bought. The standard everything is measured against is the thing losing value.
FRED · purchasing power of the consumer dollar · 1913–2026
The printer never stops
Since 1966 the money supply has grown 50 times over, and federal debt 122 times. Risk-free, priced in a unit that will not hold still.
FRED · M2, federal debt · 1966–2026
What you actually keep
The risk-free return minus inflation. Negative in 38% of all months since 1948. The safest asset in finance regularly pays less than nothing.
FRED · 3-month bill, CPI · 1948–2026
A unit that cannot be printed
Bitcoin is capped at 21 million, enforced by code rather than a committee. The first standard with no printer behind it.
FRED · bitcoin, Coinbase · 2014–2026
Digital credit
Fixed income paid on top of the asset that cannot be debased. Where the two systems meet.
Strategy 8-K · Strive 8-K · FRED
chart unavailable, see number above.
STRCStrategy, Aug 202612.00%
SATAStrive, 08-2813.0%
3-mo billFRED, 08-273.84%